What Drives Consumer Behavior on the Fourth of July?

As Americans celebrate Independence Day, retailers nationwide are experiencing one of the summer’s key shopping events. The Fourth of July offers a unique blend of patriotic fervor, tradition, and seasonal activities that influence consumer behavior.

According to the National Retail Federation (NRF), 87% of consumers plan to celebrate Independence Day this year. In comparison, data and tech company Numerator expects a slightly lower outcome of 73%. Per the company’s verified purchase data and a sentiment survey of more than 5,500 consumers, the top Fourth of July plans include:

• Spending time with family and friends (58%)
• Grilling or barbecuing (56%)
• Participating in public events (31%)
• Preparing food at home (26%)
• Hosting gatherings at their residence (18%)

We asked our BrainTrust members what they believe specifically drives shoppers’ behavior on this hot holiday, and most of them agreed that there are various opportunities for retailers, just like other big holidays throughout the year. 

“Celebrations and holidays are an increasing focus for retailers. This has been marked not only by the earlier and earlier drop of holiday goods but also by retailers marking it as a strategic focus,” said Brain Delp, president of sales & global licensing (North America) for Himatsingka Group.

Delp went on to discuss how this year, in particular, purchases are more likely to involve artificial intelligence. “For the Fourth of July, you can expect to see heightened marketing with purchases for the usual suspects. However, these purchases are now more likely to be prompted by AI,” he explained. “There has been a suite of new search tools rolled out and integrated into retail search functions, such as the ability to ask for a retailer to create a shopping list for you. ‘What do I need for a July 4th barbecue for 12 people?’ This enables marketplaces to offer the ability to service customers who want more curation within the overwhelming sea of options. Although still in its infancy, we can expect to see more of this.”

But what are consumers actually buying, and what motivates them specifically on this particular holiday?

Consumer Motivations for Shopping During the Fourth of July

According to Dave Wendland, VP of strategic relations for Hamacher Resource Group, “The driving factor for this holiday is that shoppers are truly looking to celebrate summer. The most successful retailers have focused on categories such as grilling and outdoor living, and I believe those are key to this holiday. There remains an untapped opportunity for supermarkets to lean more into the summer holidays (Fourth of July included) as total store opportunities. Cross merchandising, grocery tie-ins, parking lot events, and more pomp and circumstance.”

Patriotism is also a driving force behind many consumer purchases during the Fourth of July. The holiday’s deep-rooted association with national pride leads shoppers to buy items that help them express their patriotism. This includes flags, decorations, and apparel featuring red, white, and blue themes. According to the NRF, 31% of those celebrating the holiday plan to buy additional patriotic items.

Neil Saunders, managing director of retail for GlobalData, agreed that patriotism is one of the primary focuses of the holiday. “Independence Day spending is traditionally focused on three key areas: food, fun, and patriotism. The sale of patriotic items such as flag decorations and stars and stripes décor soars, although this year’s spending looks like it might be a little more subdued as consumers budget more carefully and more will reuse items from last year,” he said. “Food will perform well as few households plan to skimp, although grocers will need to ramp up promotions to grow market share so retail margins may take a hit. On the fun side, spending on trips and activities will be around as steady as last year. So overall, this will be a solid year for July 4th, with perhaps a bit of fraying around the edges.”

Lucille DeHart, principal of MKT Marketing Services and marketing expert for Columbus Consulting, added that “the second-largest category of spend is on patriotic items, which is fairly unique to this holiday, with fireworks accounting for $2.7 billion of spending in 2023.”

“Americans have always been enamored with the Fourth of July holiday for a variety of reasons. Summer. Beach. Boats. Fireworks. Family. Friends. Cookouts. What’s not to like? Yet, there’s a deeper thread that tugs at the heart and mind. It’s a sense of belonging to one of the greatest nations on earth that offers all of its citizens the enjoyment of life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness. Consumers reflect these feelings with purchases of uniquely American memorabilia emblazoned on T-shirts, shorts, bathing suits, flags, tablecloths, paper plates, napkins, fireworks, grills, and the list goes on. America will be 248 years old this July 4th, and it’s worth celebrating all its wonders. I certainly will be enjoying a cold beverage and a hot dog at the lake with a number of friends and family, taking in the wonderful patriotic traditions that the 4th always offers.”

David Spear, vice president of professional services, NCR Voyix

Tradition also plays a crucial role in the holiday. Family gatherings, barbecues, and outdoor celebrations are central to the Fourth’s festivities, driving demand for food, beverages, and grilling supplies. These social events are key motivators for consumer spending during this period, with the NRF reporting that more people plan to go to cookouts, barbecues, and picnics (66%) this year than they have since the pandemic began. The number of consumers planning to view fireworks or go to community celebrations has also increased (44%).

“Many consumers are looking forward to family events or perhaps getting together with friends and neighbors,” said Clay Parnell, president and managing partner of The Parker Avery Group. “Food to grill, side dishes, drinks, along with games and ideally outdoor activities (as long as the weather cooperates!) — parades, fireworks, time at the pool/lake/beach. Certainly, there’s a patriotic theme, lots of red, white, and blue. Other than food and drinks, the other focus for consumer spending will be on any events or venues — parks, ball games, golf, swimming, and more. Given the economy and inflation, I’d expect July 4th specific spending to be relatively subdued this year, so any retailer promotions and discounts will help drive demand. If I have to spend more on food this year, then last year’s flag shirt is likely still fine to wear!”

Patricia V. Waldron, contributing editor for RetailWire, agreed with Parnell, noting that “July 4th spending is another example of consumers’ preference for experiences — hosting others, attending parties, or joining in community activities to celebrate.” She added that “more dollars are going toward food and beverage as well as festive apparel and home decor.”

Popular Products and Categories

During the Fourth of July, certain product categories see a notable increase in sales. As reported by Numerator, food and beverages top the list, with 87% of consumers planning to buy food items and 48% intending to purchase alcoholic drinks for their celebrations. Of those who plan to buy alcohol, beer is the beverage of choice for 75% of consumers.

Capital One Shopping reported that “Americans spent an estimated $15.8 billion for the Fourth of July 2023.” The research specified that consumers spent $9.5 billion on food and $4.02 billion on alcohol. Some of the top food items purchased last year included hamburgers and hotdogs, grilling meats, chips, watermelon, and ice cream, per data from Wiser.

This year, according to the NRF, shoppers are expected to spend an average of $90.42 per person on food items for the Fourth of July.

“Picnics, parades, cookouts, and block parties are the key drivers for consumer spend, which will be impacted by inflation,” said DeHart. “With over 150 million hot dogs eaten on July 4th and hot dog prices increasing by 7.1% over the past year, according to MarketWatch, Americans will feel some pain in their holiday budgets. Luckily, however, they may not notice the impact until the $4.02 billion spent on alcohol wears off.”

Michael La Kier, vice president of brand development for IGA (Independent Grocers Alliance), agrees that inflation may play a role in consumer spending for the holiday. “Historically, July 4th creates a sense of optimism and openness for consumers, which drives significant buying activity,” he explained. “It marks the true beginning of summer cookouts, tasting the best produce of the season. As with past years, fresh fruit and fresh meat purchases will accelerate, but they will likely moderate given the past two years of compound inflation.”

Even with inflation, some BrainTrust members were very optimistic about the selling potential on the Fourth. Rachelle King, U.S. commerce lead for Google, said, “Three things drive consumer behavior on the Fourth of July: family, food, and fun. When these three come together, the Fourth of July can be one of the highest food and beverage consumption days in the year, second only to Thanksgiving. This is a great opportunity for retailers to do market-basket building and drive cross-category purchases. For many consumers, this may be the first warm-weather cookout holiday of the year. Consumers are in a good mood and the tendency toward impulse purchases like paper products, condiments, and snacks is high because consumers want to ensure their families have a good time.”

However, not everyone was as positive about the holiday’s selling power. According to Jenn McMillen, founder and chief accelerant for Incendio, “Unless the weather is bad or you sell beer, hot dogs, or fireworks, don’t put too much effort into the Fourth of July. Every retailer I’ve ever worked for — GameStop, Michael’s Arts & Crafts, and Blockbuster way back in the day — saw dismal traffic despite some great sales. This is not a shopping holiday; this is a hang-out-and-eat holiday.”

Besides food and drinks, outdoor-related items often experience a surge in demand on Independence Day. “Even with the current economic opportunities, preventatives (for the outdoors) are still a big thing at supermarkets and big-box retailers,” said Richard Hernandez, senior pricing/procurement professional. “Customers are spending money on suntan lotions, aloe gels, suntan sprays, insect repellents, etc. for themselves and their kids. Families are still enjoying the Fourth outdoors.”

When it comes to where consumers typically shop for the Fourth, most shoppers plan to purchase items from grocery or big-box stores, according to Numerator. Specifically, “63% of Independence Day shoppers plan to buy their supplies from grocery stores such as Kroger and Publix, 54% expect to buy from big-box stores such as Walmart and Costco, and 26% expect to shop at liquor stores.”

“On July 4th, consumers focus on BBQs, hot dogs, burgers, fireworks, and fun. Grocery retailers have always stocked up on these food essentials for festive consumers. But if you asked consumers, especially those under the age of 35, what ‘specifically’ are we celebrating on July 4th, my hunch is that most of them won’t know. Maybe grocers can provide a patriotic service via signage, flyers, etc., and inform these ‘citizens’ what exactly we are celebrating. If not this year, maybe next.”

John Karolefski, publisher & editor-in-chief, CPGmatters